Trading expectancy calculator
Expectancy is the average amount a strategy earns per trade, measured in R. Enter your win rate and your average win and loss, and the calculator shows whether the strategy has an edge — and what that edge is worth over a series of trades.
Alpha Charts calculates win rate, average R and expectancy from your journal automatically. Start free →
How the trading expectancy calculator works
- Expectancy (R)
- (Win rate × Average win) − (Loss rate × Average loss)
- Loss rate
- 1 − Win rate
- Expected result
- Expectancy × Number of trades
Step by step
- Enter the win rate of the strategy, from at least 30 journaled trades if possible.
- Enter the average winning trade in R.
- Enter the average losing trade in R — 1.0 if you always take full stops.
- Read the expectancy. Positive means the strategy has an edge in your sample; negative means it does not.
Questions about the trading expectancy calculator
What is a good trading expectancy?
Any positive expectancy means the strategy has earned money in your sample. Higher is better, but sample size matters: expectancy from 10 trades is far less reliable than from 100.
Why measure expectancy in R instead of money?
R removes position size from the picture. It shows the quality of the strategy itself, so you can compare periods and setups even when your account size changed.
Where do I get my win rate and average R?
From your trading journal. Alpha Charts calculates win rate, average R and expectancy automatically from your logged trades.
Related guides and journals
More free calculators
Guides
- Trading Journal Metrics That Actually Improve Profitability
- How to Analyze Your Trading Performance: A Complete Metrics Guide
- From Journal to Edge: How to Identify Your Personal Trading Advantage
Trading journals
Stop calculating by hand. Journal it.
Alpha Charts measures every trade in R and tracks win rate and expectancy for each setup automatically.
Calculators are provided for educational purposes and are not financial advice. Results exclude fees, slippage and currency conversion.